Stock Market Today: Gains Roll In, Dow Jumps 200 Points

I just had a great post-earnings chat with Robin Vince, the chief executive officer of BNY Mellon (BK) (they released earnings this morning and the stock is up 2% before rock).

I appreciate his views on interest rates and markets (below. I think his views are inflationary!

"As I think about interest rates, there are things happening in the world. Obviously, we have geopolitical risks, and as of today, the ongoing [Israel/Iran] conflict is likely to escalate-which is obviously a risk. The inflation rate in the U.S. has been relatively high, and that's obviously a risk as well. Therefore, the interest rate is in question. The U.S. noodles are facing a fiscal challenge, and in terms of volume, the U.S. bond issuance has been [higher]. That's good for our business, but as a citizen and a taxpayer, you have to worry about the sustainability of the U.S. debt. So there's a lot to do.

Now, I'm going to say the opposite as well, because we're looking at really strong fundamentals in the U.S. economy, and that's not to say that we're not going to have a correction in the stock market at some point - that's likely to happen. It doesn't mean that we won't have a recession at some point. That's inevitable. But if you look at the advantages that the U.S. has right now, it has a lot of relatively important advantages around the world. It is a great investment destination. You can hear that from the international mat executives. You can see it in the way that investors are putting money into the U.S. You can see it in the way that the stock market is performing, and there's a lot of "tailwinds" coming into the market right now. So I think this is a place where you have to be prepared for all eventualities. Maybe we'll see the Fed stay put. Will the Fed cut rates this year? Possibly. Will the Fed raise rates? Not impossible. You have to be prepared, but at the same time, the fundamental development of the U.S. is very positive.