Bank of America says the stock market just sent out a bullish signal, suggesting it will rise 19 percent by August 2025

• The S&P 500 just sent out a bullish signal indicating a 19% increase by August 2025, according to Bank of America.

• The bank highlighted 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains in the stock market.

• The signal suggests that despite the weakness in April, there is still a bullish backdrop for the stock market.

The stock market just flashed a bullish signal that the S&P 500 could soar another 19% to 6,000 by August 2025, according to Bank of America.

Stephen Suttmeier, a technical analyst at Bank of America, highlighted in a report Tuesday that the S&P 500 has posted 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.

In other words, from March 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 had positive year-over-year returns every month. This bullish signal is the opposite of the previous year, when the S&P 500 had 12 consecutive months of negative year-over-year returns from April 2022 through March 2023.

"This bear market trend was broken in April 2023 with positive year-over-year returns. We see this as a bullish background signal for U.S. equities, and since then, the SPX Index has rebounded over 20%," Suttmeier said.

The positive signals just flashed remind investors that despite the weakness in April, when the S&P 500 fell about 4%, the long-term trend for stocks is still up. This suggests that further gains are likely ahead.

"Don't ignore the long-term bull market," says Guttmacher.

According to Suttmeier, based on historical averages, the monthly positive return streak could be extended from the current 12-month reading to 20 months, which would coincide with a rise in the equity 17%. At the same time, based on historical data, the median positive return streak can be extended to 17 months for a yield of 14%.

This suggests that the S&P 500 could reach 6,000 by August 2025 and 6,150 by November 2025.

In the short term, however, amid continued weakness in equities, Suttmeier said investors should be concerned about potential support for the S&P 500 at 5,000 and in the 4,600-4,800 range.

These support levels represent potential declines of up to 9%, suggesting that the risk/reporting profile of the stock market remains attractive until then.

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