STOCK MARKET TODAY: U.S. Stocks Close Mixed, Bond Yields Climb Ahead of Latest Inflation Figures

• U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond hit a 2024 high.

• The market believes that the odds of a rate cut in June have fallen to around 50%.

• Wednesday's CPI data will be the key data to determine the Fed's policy to move the ball.

U.S. stocks were mixed at the end of Monday's trading session, as stocks put the brakes on a five-month rally, and the U.S. government recalibrated interest rate expectations.

Stocks followed up on last week's change in sentiment with a modest gain on Monday after a sharp correction in economic data that exceeded expectations. The strong data also led to a surge in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year yield reaching a 2024 high of 4.42% on Monday.

Friday's shocking jobs report further disrupted expectations for a rate cut this year. The data showed that 303,000 new jobs were created in March, exceeding expectations. As the economy remains resilient, the need for the Fed to cut interest rates to boost economic growth and avoid a downturn has diminished.

CME FedWatch data shows that the market now sees the odds of a June rate cut dropping to 50-50.

As the market waits for more clues about the Fed's future actions, most will be watching Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report.

"The consensus forecast is for a 0.3% monthly bump in both the aggregate and core numbers. while these numbers are slightly lower than February's, they are still too high to bring inflation close to the Fed's 2% target in the near term," said Jamie Dutta, analyst at Vantage Markets. ." This means that the inflationary noise from earlier this year continues to linger, which does not bode well for those calling for a rate cut at the end of the quarter."

A number of Fed officials will also speak this week, including New York Fed President John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, both of whom will speak on Thursday. Markets will also analyze the minutes of the March policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Here's what the U.S. stock indexes were doing at the 4 p.m. close on Monday:

• S&P 500: 5202.39, down 0.04 percent

• Dow Jones Industrial Average 38,892.80 down 0.03% (-11.24 points)

• NASDAQ Composite Resonance Index 16,253.96, up 0.03 percent

What else happened today?

• Economist David Rosenberg warns that some recession indicators are flashing red.

• Gold could rise another 50% by 2025, says Ed Yardeni.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the rapid growth of private credit could give rise to systemic risks.

• TSMC rises after $11.6 billion chip-making deal to boost production in U.S.

• According to Bankrate, the chances of a recession are now at a two-year low.

• Jamie Dimon wrote in a shareholder letter that investors are overly optimistic in an era of geopolitical turmoil and inflation.

Commodities, bonds and cryptocurrencies:

• Oil prices fell. West Texas Kerosene Intermediate fell 0.41 TP3T to $86.53 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to US$90.53 per barrel.

• Gold rose 0.4% to $2,339.98 per ounce.

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.42%.

• Bitcoin rises 3.6% to $71,859.

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