Jamie Dimon warns that the market is "overjoyed" and failing to price in a possible U.S. recession. - Apple Latest
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Jamie Dimon has warned that markets are "overjoyed" and failing to price in a possible US recession.

"The odds of a bad outcome are higher than people think," Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive officer, told reporters on a conference call Friday.
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Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase's Chief Executive Officer, in Washington, D.C., in 2022.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
  • Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive officer, told reporters on a post-earnings conference call that the market is "too happy" right now.

  • He said investors had underestimated the possibility of a recession.

  • His comments coincided with the release of JPMorgan's record first-quarter financial results.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive officer, said investors are underestimating the likelihood of an economic surprise.

The famed chief executive told reporters by phone Friday that the market was "too happy" and that "the odds of a bad outcome are higher than people think."

For now, the economy seems to be doing just fine, Darmon acknowledged, citing support from excess savings, low unemployment and a record stock market. But he said low-income people are starting to struggle, and banks are noticing a break in subprime auto loans.

According to a report in the Quartz newsletter, he attacked guesses on figures such as interest rates and yields, saying that these estimates were often wrong.

"You've got to ask the question," he said, "you've got to ask the question: what if something else happens, like a rise in interest rates, or a moderate recession, and so on, and then all these numbers change?" I just don't think any of us should be surprised if that happens.

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On the same day that JPMorgan made these comments, the Wall Street giant released its first quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations, with revenues up 9% year-over-year to $41.9 billion. Earnings per share came in at $4.44, beating AlphaSense's consensus estimate of $4.14.

In a related press release, Damon celebrated the bank's strong quarterly industry merit, but also warned of "significant uncertainties," including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and the unknown impacts of large modular tightening.

Both the conference call and the press release echoed the cautionary sentiments of Dymond's letter to shareholders released four days earlier: in it, he warned that the world was entering the most "perilous" era since World War II, and he disagreed with the market's view of the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan's chief financial officer, echoed Dymon's sentiments in his own call with reporters on Friday:

"The economic geopolitics that we've been talking about for some time and the uncertainty over the Koon noodles remain prominent," Quartz quoted him as saying." Our focus is on preparing for these and other challenges that may arise.

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