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ANALYSIS-Wall Street braces for U.S. tax season liquidity test

Wall Street is bracing for possible stress in the currency markets by putting some cash aside ahead of the U.S. tax season, when large tax-related outflows could hurt market liquidity. The tax season culminates on April 15, when individuals file their income tax returns with the U.S. federal government, which typically leads to a drop in financial sector liquidity as individuals withdraw cash from bank deposits and money market funds to pay their taxes. Liquidity, as measured by the Federal Reserve's bank reserves and the Fed's overnight Riposte Ratio (RRP), the favored cash depository for money market funds, is still considered ample, but analysts say the high capital gains from last year's stock market boom could make this year's outflows particularly significant, which could lead to a spike in short-term interest rates.

Morning Bidding: Bauer, Data, Taiwan Earthquake Keep Markets Nervous

With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak soon, markets are skeptical that the central bank will begin easing as early as June. Money market traders disagree with the Fed and most analysts on the timing of the first rate cut of the year and the easing model. At the same time, they also lowered the expected three rate cuts in 2024, but with continued inflation and strong economic data, the Fed itself may slowly accept this view.
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